Industry intelligence · Insurance agencies · July 2026
Insurance Agency M&A Outlook 2026
Nearly three of every four agency acquisitions are now made with private equity capital. Elevated interest rates pressed against that tide for three years – and the multiple never broke. Here is what the market pays, who actually sets the price, and why 2026 may reward the prepared seller.
From the author of “Insurance Agency M&A: Strike Before The Market Cools” (Forbes) – among the most-cited analyses of agency consolidation.
Volume bent. Price didn’t.
Three years of expensive debt cut deal count by a third from the peak – yet agency multiples gave back less than half a turn. That tells you everything about how much capital still wants this industry.
| 695 | 73% | 11.4x | ~30,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deals announced, 2025. Down 12% from 2024 and ~33% below the 2021 peak | Bought with PE capital. PE and hybrid buyers’ share of 2025 deals – 69–75% every quarter for 7 years | Avg. EBITDA multiple. Deals with $1M+ EBITDA, full-year 2025 – still ~20% above 2020 | Agencies still independent. Most under $1.25M revenue with no perpetuation plan – tomorrow’s sellers |
The headwind was real. The benchmark SOFR rate climbed from near zero to 5.4% by December 2023, the steepest rate climb in recent history, and the typical agency acquirer borrows at roughly SOFR + 450 basis points. For the first time in years, the spread between a buyer’s expected return and its borrowing cost went negative on deals above $1M of EBITDA. Cheap debt had been the rocket fuel of the consolidation trade; suddenly every tuck-in had to clear a much higher bar.
What gave was volume, not price. Deal count declined for a fourth consecutive year; the trailing-twelve-month rate stood at 686 through Q1 2026, well below the 2021 peak of 1,034. Q1 2026’s 148 deals marked the slowest first quarter since 2016, the tenth straight quarter below trend. Yet average multiples on $1M+ EBITDA deals held remarkably firm: 11.9x in 2024, easing only to 11.4x across 2025 – still roughly 20% above 2020 levels. Buyers absorbed higher debt costs and got pickier instead of cheaper; the average acquired agency has grown larger as capital concentrated on quality.
Now the wind is shifting. The Fed’s cuts have narrowed the spread to roughly (0.3)% as of mid-2025, with a return to positive territory expected – restoring leverage capacity to the buyers who never stopped wanting these assets. We see deal volume bottoming in the mid-600s, with the rebound likely led by private equity acquirers. For owners, that is the setup: demand intact, financing improving, and scarcity value rising for quality firms.
Exhibit 1 – Agency & broker deal volume: a four-year slide, now bottoming
| Year | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | LTM Q1’26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Announced deals | 461 | 611 | 643 | 658 | 805 | 1,034 | 1,032 | 835 | 787 | 695 | 686 |
Source: OPTIS Partners (January 2026; April 2026). North American agent & broker transactions. LTM bar is the trailing 12 months through Q1 2026 – a 686-deal run rate versus Q1 2026’s 148 announced deals.
Exhibit 2 – The financing spread is healing
| Q1 2019 | Q4 2020 | 2023–24 | 1H 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| +4.8% | +6.0% | Negative | (0.3)% |
Buyer expected return minus borrowing cost (borrowing ≈ SOFR + 450bps). Source: Sica | Fletcher (2025). Spread first turned negative after the Fed drove SOFR from ~0% to 5.4% (Dec 2023); expected to turn positive as cuts continue. 2023–24 figure is directional.
Why private equity cannot quit this industry – and who actually sets your price
Insurance distribution may be the single most successful roll-up strategy in private equity history. Understanding the buyers’ arithmetic is how sellers stop guessing what their agency is worth.
The economics sponsors keep paying for
- Recurring revenue – policies renew annually with retention typically above 90%; the book itself is the asset
- Capital-light cash flow – no inventory, minimal capex, negative working capital; EBITDA converts to cash
- Proven margins – well-run agencies sustain mid-20s EBITDA margins with steady organic growth through the cycle
- Recession resilience – insurance is purchased in every economy; demand holds through every cycle
- Built-in growth – premium-rate inflation lifts renewal commissions automatically, an organic growth tailwind independent of new business
- Fragmentation – tens of thousands of independent agencies, most without a perpetuation plan, supply decades of tuck-ins
- Multiple arbitrage – buy a $1M-EBITDA agency at 8–11x, mark it inside a platform valued at 14x+; the spread is manufactured equity value
Who sets the price: the marginal buyer
The clearing price: ~30 PE-backed consolidators. Hub, Inszone, Acrisure, World, Alkeme and peers executed 73% of all 2025 deals – and 89% of top-19 acquirer volume. Their model prices the typical agency: debt at SOFR+450, sponsor return hurdles, and platform arbitrage. When your agency gets three bids, this group usually wrote all three.
The ceiling: strategic publics. Gallagher, Brown & Brown, Marsh McLennan, Aon, and WTW set the top of the market – paying 14–16x EBITDA for scale assets (AssuredPartners, Accession, NFP). Their currency: cheaper capital, synergies, and a public-market multiple to arbitrage against.
The validation: recaps & pensions. Sponsor-to-sponsor recapitalizations – OneDigital at $7B+ with Stone Point and CPP Investments, BroadStreet with an Ethos-led group alongside Ontario Teachers’ – mark the platforms whose math underwrites every tuck-in. Pension and sovereign capital entering at these marks signals conviction, not exit.
The MGA frontier
Specialty distributors, wholesalers, MGAs, and program managers now command the market’s richest pricing: all-in valuations averaged 19.4x pro forma EBITDA in 2025, several turns above typical upfront consideration (MarshBerry, May 2026). Deloitte calls MGAs private equity’s next big opportunity – underwriting economics without balance-sheet risk. PwC expects specialty P&C, E&S, and MGAs to keep attracting private capital through 2026.
The practical takeaway: your price is set by the leveraged buyer’s spreadsheet, not by industry sentiment. When debt costs doubled, that spreadsheet cut volume rather than multiples – platform marks made quality tuck-ins accretive even with expensive debt. As rates ease and the spread turns positive, the same arithmetic adds leverage capacity and buyer urgency. Directly or indirectly, private equity is the marginal buyer of nearly every American insurance agency – and its cost of capital is your tailwind or headwind.
Sources: OPTIS Partners (January 2026); Sica | Fletcher (January 2026; April 2026); MarshBerry (2025); Deloitte (2025); PwC (2026); company announcements.
What agencies are actually worth in 2026
Most owners will not get the headline 15x – the staircase is where pricing happens.
Exhibit 3 – The multiple is a staircase: scale, quality, and specialty move you up it
| Agency profile | Typical EBITDA multiple |
|---|---|
| Main Street agency · under $1M EBITDA | 5–10x |
| Mid-market firm · $1M+ EBITDA | 10–14x |
| PE platform / large strategics | ~14x base → ~19x with earn-out |
| Specialty / MGA · upfront → all-in | 14–19+x |
Sources: Sica | Fletcher (2026); MarshBerry (2025); company filings. Disclosed mega-deal multiples ran 14.3–15.6x (Gallagher–AssuredPartners, Aon–NFP, Brown & Brown–Accession). Illustrative, not a valuation opinion.
Exhibit 4 – Multiples climbed through the rate shock, then stabilized
| 2020 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| 9.4x | 11.9x | 11.4x |
Average EBITDA multiple on deals with $1M+ EBITDA. Source: Sica | Fletcher (April 2026) – roughly 20% expansion since 2020; 1H 2025 ran 11.8x before easing. Averages skew toward advised, competitive processes, which have priced ~25% above unrepresented sales since 2020.
A note on honesty in multiples. Always ask: a multiple of what? Headline figures mix base versus all-in (earn-out) consideration and increasingly aggressive “adjusted” EBITDA definitions. A 19x all-in quote can be a 14x check at closing – and the all-in is earned only if post-close growth targets hit. Anchor on your size band and the cash at close. A multiple of EBITDA is how deals are quoted, discussed, and negotiated – a consistent way to compare transactions – but the realized price is set by the buyer’s full model and the competition behind your number.
Scale still pays. Crossing $1M of EBITDA moves the average from single digits to over 11x, and each tier above that de-risks the buyer further. Buyers are selective, and the average acquired agency is larger today than it was a few years ago, so the premium accrues to firms that look like platforms in miniature.
Exhibit 5 – Insurance-specific factors buyers price, beyond size
| Earns a premium | Drags the multiple |
|---|---|
| Commercial lines & benefits mix – middle-market commercial P&C and recurring-fee benefits books price above transactional personal lines | Personal lines concentration – especially non-standard auto: high churn, carrier instability, thin margins |
| Niche & program specialization – industry verticals, E&S, and program business carry scarcity value and richer economics | Generalist small commercial – transactional books without a niche get priced as books, not businesses |
| Carrier diversification – broad market access, healthy loss ratios, and stable contingents read as durable revenue | Carrier concentration – one carrier dominating revenue, or earnings leaning on contingent commissions |
| Young, validated producers – a bench that sells without the owner converts directly into purchase price | Aging producer bench – production concentrated in owners near retirement, with no perpetuation plan |
| Organic growth & retention – 90%+ retention with consistent organic growth puts you in the top tier of any process | Flat organic growth – buyers bridge stagnation with earn-outs and structure instead of cash at close |
Source: McCombie Group client experience.
How you stack up: average vs. best-in-class
Industry-average agencies versus best-in-class operators, on the metrics buyers actually underwrite. Best-in-class agencies run nearly three margin points ahead – and buyers price every one of them. Operational excellence is not incremental: it is the difference between pricing as a book and pricing as a platform.
Exhibit 6 – The benchmark table buyers carry into every management meeting
| Benchmark | Industry average | Best-in-class | What buyers read into it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Organic growth rate (FY2024) | 9.0% | 10.7% | Growth in a hard market is table stakes; holding it as pricing softens is the proof |
| Pro forma EBITDA margin (FY2024) | 23.6% | 26.1% | Each margin point above 23% adds roughly half an EBITDA turn at the bid table |
| Rule of 20 (growth + ½ EBITDA margin) | ~20.8 (derived) | 25.1 | Above 20 opens the competitive process; above 24 reaches the strategic ceiling |
| Sales velocity (new biz / prior-yr commissions) | 11.7% | ~15.7% (top tier) | The new-business engine is the strongest predictor of post-close growth – buyers model it forward |
| Organic growth, quartile spread (recent sample) | 7.9% | 12.5% (top quartile) | The 4.6-pt quartile gap closes roughly 60% of the multiple spread between tier bands |
| Projected EBITDA margin (FY2025 forecast) | 23.4% | 30.0% (top quartile) | Forward margin is what buyers underwrite; 30% signals operating leverage, not luck |
| Revenue per employee (FY2024) | est. ~$150–175K (McCombie est.) | $225–250K | The productivity gap signals platform leverage – headcount does not scale linearly with a buyer’s cost base |
Source: Reagan Consulting; McCombie Group analysis. Rule of 20 is derived; revenue-per-employee average is a McCombie Group estimate. All interpretations are McCombie Group’s own.
What this means for your place on the valuation staircase. Scale moves the multiple – but the metrics in this table carry an agency up the staircase independent of size. A caution on the averages: survey participants skew larger and healthier than the full market, so the spread shown is conservative – and the market is softening, with organic growth easing from 9.0% in FY2024 to roughly 7.1% by Q4 2025. These agencies benchmarked themselves last year; buyers are benchmarking them right now with this same data. (McCombie Group view, illustrative.)
The consolidation has consolidated
The last 24 months produced the largest brokerage deals ever recorded – and the consolidators themselves became the targets.
Exhibit 8 – Selected major broker & MGA transactions, 2023–2026
| Target | Buyer | Announced | Value | EBITDA mult. | Rev. mult. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Relation Insurance | BayPine | Feb 2026 | n/d | n/d | n/d |
| Newfront | WTW | Jan 2026* | $1.3B | n/d | ~5.2x |
| CAC Group ($282M rev.) | The Baldwin Group | Dec 2025 | n/d | n/d | n/d |
| OneDigital (recap) | Stone Point + CPP Inv. | Sep 2025 | $7.0B+ | n/d | n/d |
| Keystone Agency Partners (recap) | Warburg Pincus | Jul 2025 | n/d | n/d | n/d |
| Accession Risk Mgmt (Risk Strategies / One80) | Brown & Brown | Jun 2025 | $9.825B | ~15.6x | ~5.8x |
| BroadStreet Partners (recap) | Ethos-led (BCI, WTM) | Apr 2025 | n/d | n/d | n/d |
| Woodruff Sawyer | Arthur J. Gallagher | Mar 2025 | $1.2B | n/d | ~4.5x |
| AssuredPartners | Arthur J. Gallagher | Dec 2024 | $13.45B | 14.3x† | ~4.6x |
| McGriff Insurance Services | Marsh McLennan | Sep 2024 | $7.75B | n/d | ~6.0x |
| NFP | Aon | Dec 2023 | $13.4B | ~15x | n/d |
| Average of multiples shown | ~15.0x | ~5.2x | |||
Sources: Company filings and announcements; revenue figures per the parties and OPTIS Partners. †14.3x pro forma EBITDAC gross; 11.3x net of tax asset and synergies. EBITDA multiples disclosed or computed from filings; revenue multiples computed from disclosed value and reported revenue. Averages are simple means of the disclosed and estimated figures shown (5 revenue, 3 EBITDA observations). *Closing date. n/d = not disclosed.
The 19 most active acquirers bought 466 agencies in 2025 alone – 69% of announced deal activity. Source: Sica | Fletcher (January 2026), 19 index members. All trademarks are the property of their respective owners; no affiliation or endorsement is implied.
We called this market in Forbes. Now we help owners act on it.
Our founder David McCombie published “Insurance Agency M&A: Strike Before The Market Cools” in Forbes – among the most-cited analyses of agency consolidation – examining why valuations had outrun their fundamentals and what sellers should do about it. The market described in these pages is the one that article anticipated: fewer, choosier buyers; resilient multiples; and a widening gap between prepared sellers and everyone else.
McCombie Group is an M&A advisory firm serving founder- and family-owned businesses. We have advised on successful insurance agency transactions and guided owners through approximately $2 billion of closed deals – selling businesses, raising capital, and consolidating industries through acquisition. Our founder literally wrote the book on the subject, Selling Your Business with Confidence (Wiley).
We work the way this report reads: candidly, with data, and with your goals – legacy, team, timing, certainty of close – at the center.
“We couldn’t have done it without them.”
— Combined Underwriters of Miami, a 30-year South Florida agency. McCombie Group represented ownership through its successful sale.
Where does your agency sit on the staircase?
If this report raised questions – about your multiple, your buyer universe, or your timing – a confidential conversation answers more than another year of wondering. No pitch, no pressure, no obligation. The buyers are prepared. You should be too.
info@mccombiegroup.com · 786.664.8340 · mccombiegroup.com
Frequently asked questions: selling an insurance agency
How much is an insurance agency worth in 2026?
Pricing is a staircase, not a single number. Main Street agencies under $1M of EBITDA generally trade at 5–10x EBITDA; mid-market firms above $1M at 10–14x; PE platforms and large strategic acquisitions at roughly 14x base and up to ~19x with earn-outs; and specialty distributors and MGAs command the market’s richest pricing. The average across $1M+ EBITDA deals was 11.4x in 2025 – still roughly 20% above 2020 levels. Where a specific agency lands inside its band turns on the factors in Exhibit 5: book mix, specialization, carrier diversification, producer bench, and retention.
What multiple of EBITDA do insurance agencies sell for?
Multiples are how agency deals are quoted, discussed, and negotiated – a consistent way to compare transactions across sizes and structures. That makes them a good rule of thumb, not the whole answer: always ask, a multiple of what? Headline figures mix base versus all-in (earn-out) consideration and increasingly aggressive “adjusted” EBITDA definitions. A 19x all-in quote can be a 14x check at closing. Anchor on your size band and the cash at close.
Who buys independent insurance agencies?
Directly or indirectly, private equity is the marginal buyer of nearly every American insurance agency. Roughly 30 PE-backed consolidators – Hub, Inszone, Acrisure, World, Alkeme and peers – executed 73% of all 2025 deals. Strategic publics such as Gallagher, Brown & Brown, Marsh McLennan, Aon, and WTW set the top of the market for scale assets, and specialty/MGA platforms attract the richest pricing of all.
Is 2026 a good time to sell an insurance agency?
The setup favors prepared sellers: demand intact, financing improving, and buyers more selective than a year ago – which widens the gap between agencies that are ready and agencies that are not. One more consideration: valuation windows are cyclical. Industries that are richly priced do not stay that way indefinitely, and when a pricing peak passes, history suggests it can take a decade or more to return. If pricing fell by half, an owner would need to double the size of the business just to realize the same proceeds. Waiting is a decision too.
How do I sell my insurance agency?
The realized price is set by competitive tension among the right buyers, not by a valuation model – a defensible number is the starting line, not the finish line. A well-run process identifies the consolidators and strategics actually paying premiums for your profile, creates competition among them, and negotiates structure – base versus earn-out, cash at close, employment terms – with full knowledge of the buyer’s arithmetic. Advised, competitive processes have priced roughly 25% above unrepresented sales since 2020. The work of selling an agency well begins long before the first buyer conversation.
What makes one agency worth more than another?
Beyond size: commercial-lines and benefits mix, niche or program specialization, carrier diversification, a young validated producer bench, and 90%+ retention with consistent organic growth all earn a premium. Personal-lines concentration (especially non-standard auto), generalist books without a niche, carrier concentration, an aging producer bench, and flat organic growth drag the multiple – buyers bridge stagnation with earn-outs and structure instead of cash at close. Most of these factors are fixable with runway, which is why the best time to understand them is before a process starts.
This report reflects indicative market views as of June 2026, compiled from sources believed reliable but not independently verified. It is an informal market read – not an appraisal, a valuation opinion, or an offer to buy or sell any security. All third-party names and trademarks are the property of their respective owners and are shown for identification only.